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Road to the Derby http://www.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=131386 |
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Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Apr 06, 2024 9:24 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Busy, busy day on the trail... Hit a chalky early Keeneland P5 yesterday, hoping for some bigger prices today In The Bluegrass at Keeneland will have a solid field...interesting if the Dornoch can rate here, I don't think there will be much speed Dornoch/Encino/SierraLeone Santa Anita Derby...the pace sets up nicely for McVay hopefully at a price make money |
Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 06, 2024 10:10 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Uncle Heavy in the Wood. In the Blue Grass, I think Just a Touch win will with Geroux. |
Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 06, 2024 3:13 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
That was a terrible fall in the Wood. So sorry to see the horse go down like that. Hit the tri in the 8th at Keeneland and the exa. in the 9th. And then hit the exa. in the Blue Grass. Sierra Leonne very impressive win. Good day. |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Thu Apr 11, 2024 2:27 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Keeneland continues today,Thursday, in the mud...hit the early pick 5...alive to the remainder of the late pick 5...still some good fields left today...thinking it will dry out tomorrow remainder of P5 ticket 13,6,9/1,5,10/4,7,12/6,9,10 the new 15% takeout on daily doubles at Kee is really good for bettors...and it has helped their action as well...win/win |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Apr 13, 2024 3:04 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Race 7 I think the 10-Breeze Easy might like the soft footing on the grass, 30/1 ml…4-Oeuvre is as professional a horse as there is (26 races in her lifetime, only 4 out of the money) Ward tops all trainers here and should get the lions share of attention…his 12-Love Reigns will take money but is stuck outside, coming off the bench (which she has done before with varying success) but has won 2 of her 3 races here at Kee…8-Roses for Debra is a killer at this distance…wild card is the 7 -Port Townsend (great name, love the human connections of DeVaux/Hernandez 4-2-7-8 Race 8 4-Brigadier General 2 for 2 on this course, won wire to wire last out, certainly fits…as does the 7-Classic Catch…Pletcher wins these races a lot and gets Ortiz in the irons, can’t overlook…crazy pace in here sets up so very nicely for the 5-Hayes Strike at a price! 5-4-7 Race 9 The soft turf sets up nicely for the Euro duo of 3-Elusive Princess and the 5-English Rose…the 6-Gina Romantica is 2/2 on this course and needs to be included 6-3-5 Race 10 2-Wine Steward was a game 2nd here at Kee in the Breeders Cup last year…the 9-Liberal Arts was as rank as you could get in the Arkansas Derby, ran well but was DQ’d…he’ll be running late with 8-Encino…both could be in the money along with the 5-Hades 9-8-2-5 Race 11 Yeah good luck here…I’ve narrowed down to in no order 1, 5*, 8*, 9*, 11, 4, 10 And will be trying to cut it down and remember the new 15% takeout on daily doubles at Kee is really good for bettors...and it has helped their action as well...win/win |
Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Apr 13, 2024 3:10 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: the 9-Liberal Arts was as rank as you could get in the Arkansas Derby I didn't really think he was rank. He wanted to go through a hole and Gaff got scared and checked hard. The horse was racy as hell. He wanted to go so bad and the boy just kept grabbing him. Rider change. Big win today and it should get him in the big one. Probably not the way I would have played it after the Oaklawn race, but Derby Fever is tough to avoid when you have a horse this good. |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Apr 13, 2024 4:06 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Damn. Great race...5 just left too much work...grrr |
Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Apr 13, 2024 9:19 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Damn. Great race...5 just left too much work...grrr Hernandez waited a second too long to move him outside. That's the kind of stuff that makes people question uncoupled entries. The desperation play for Derby points didn't work out for Liberal Arts either. He needs to take some time off now and they should plan for a late summer campaign. Instead they'll probably bring him back in 21 days in the Pat Day Mile or that race at Oaklawn. |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Apr 19, 2024 11:50 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
On the turf today, Friday, for a 10 trace card...track currently listed as good and hoping it dries out as the day goes on Race 2….For Turf Sprints that have large fields here at Keeneland the 3,4 and 5 post have, regardless of anything else, a ridiculous ROI. Yesterday in Race 7 relatively unknown trainer Justin Wojczynski blew up the tote with $102 winner. (I like his 11-Adrift in the in the 4th ) Race 4 Couldn’t leave the 8-Run Jalen Run off my ticket but he seems to hang a lot, and the 11-Adrift was behind him by only 3 lengths back in November getting a really bad trip… Race 5 the 3-Freedom’s Way broke his maiden at Fairgrounds with Saez aboard, then his next race here at Kee lost by a neck in first level allowance race Early Pick 5 6,7,8/5,8,9,10,11/1,2,4/4,8,11/3,9,10 |
Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Fri Apr 19, 2024 11:59 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
I've been patiently waiting for Banishing to hit the turf. Today is that day. Rain stay away. |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Apr 19, 2024 12:20 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
It'll be interesting where Gaffalione tries to place him, never having run on the grass...I see the 9-Dude in Colorado being legitimate speed on turf...if your guy doesn't go Rosario may be able to walk them...he woke up yesterday |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Apr 19, 2024 12:36 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Race 2….For Turf Sprints that have large fields here at Keeneland the 3,4 and 5 post have, regardless of anything else, a ridiculous ROI. Yesterday in Race 7 relatively unknown trainer Justin Wojczynski blew up the tote with $102 winner.
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Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Apr 19, 2024 2:59 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Was out, saw the replay of the 5th...bad spill Late Pick 5, race 6 2, 3, 6 / 3, 9, 11 / 3, 4, 10 / 1, 3, 4 / 1, 3, 6, 10 |
Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Fri Apr 19, 2024 4:52 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
I have no luck with Gafflione. I know he's a top jock but whenever I bet him he rides like an out of control six year old. |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sun Apr 21, 2024 1:17 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Sunday at Keeneland Turfway runners have 29 winners this meet… Race 1 4-Hoodlum consistent coming from Fairgrounds…speed comes from the 6 Sittin on go…keep an eye on the 3-Crazy Legs Hirsch (great football player of yore), he likes to win. Race 3-Timeless Elegance back on turf where she belongs Race 5- Can’t say it enough posts 3,4 and 5 in a turf sprint full field blow up the ROI’s…both Ward’s will be well bet (the 7 and 12) Race7 Cherie Devaux is a quietly effective trainer…this meet alone she has sent out horses that were live at 6-1 or less. In those races she is 7:5-2-0, just stunning. Blissful could pop at an extraordinary price Race 8- tremendous pace might set up for 4-Ready To Pounce, might win from behind which is tough to do in the sprints here, but today looks like it could…7-Powerful should also be coming off the pace and gets a rider upgrade Race 9- 4-Risk Threshold prepped well for this, better post than here first race and should improve over that effort…not comfortable with single so will add the 2-Muneera for her dam, and the 14-Coco Crush is intriguing at the far outside but the scratches might mitigate that Alive in the Early P5 to 4,7/2,3,6,7,8,12 Late P5 ticket 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 12 / 3, 7 / 3, 4, 7, 10 / 5, 6, 7 / 2, 4, 14 |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Thu Apr 25, 2024 2:22 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
penultimate day at the spring Kee meet Late p5 5, 6, 9, 10 / 3, 4, 5, 7 / 3, 7 / 1, 4, 9 / 1, 2, 9 Last day tomorrow then on to Derby Week at Churchill |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Thu Apr 25, 2024 4:01 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
alive here to the 1 (760), 2 (3019) and the 9 (1261) but quite frankly the way this meet has gone for me I'm hedging quite a bit (which is a bitch move, but hey) |
Author: | a retard [ Thu Apr 25, 2024 4:17 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Apr 26, 2024 12:31 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Final Day at Keeneland, nice weather, big cards Race 3 has some nice horses running on the mile turf course...the 2-Mrs Astor has run in Graded Stakes and will get bet for that…solid trainer jock stats so shouldn’t be overlooked…I prefer the 3-New Rome who will take advantage of the lack of speed (:24/:50?) and could wire them…the 9-Excellent Question’s trainer Walsh gets hot here at the end of this meet typically…the 5-Pallota Sisters has a Pedigree (Cairo Prince) that dominates here and ran against tepid fractions in Tampa to run a string 2nd last time out got the 7 home as a single alive to a healthy early pick 5 (in order of preference) 5,3,2,9/5,3,2,4/3,6,10,8,2 jump in, the hell else you doing on a rainy Friday? Yard work? |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Apr 26, 2024 12:58 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Race 4…Older Maidens running…15 of these since 2021, only 1 first time starter has won…4 YO have an advantage but the 3 YO's, 5-Barbara T and the 2-Barbtourage (Ward) have faced tough company...the 3-Pontresnia and the 4-Dee Minus possess the speed that has been need in these races in the recent past |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Apr 26, 2024 1:22 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Race 5 wide open, yet disappointing end to a chalky P5 (alive to the 2,3,6,8,10)...late P5 should be more challenging and hopefully more profitable |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Apr 26, 2024 2:00 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Hit the eraly for 188... Late p5, final one for the season 1, 2 / 2, 5, 6, 9, 10 / 1, 3, 8 / 1, 5, 8, 10, 11 / 3, 6, 9, 10 getting through the 1st leg? Man I hope so. Race 8...here’s a horse I’m excited about…the 3-Tower Bridge…has distance both top and bottom...daddy Street Sense looms large here at Keeneland…trainer DeVuax is quite good and has had a quietly strong meet…could blow up the tote based on the 20/1 ml (although with the scratch of the favorite, maybe not) Race 9 the 10-Braganza romped here at this distance and no jock is better at this 7f length then Saez Race 10 the 8-Catch a Wave…Flavien Prat last 2 years Turf Route here at Kee, $2.38 ROI |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Apr 26, 2024 2:27 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Race 7...Logial favorite the 9-Alcove can certainly get it done at 3-1...the 5-Beckster's mom (Curlin N Twirlin) has had winners in three of her first 4 foals, and Brisset wins with first timers...the 6-Stinger Bee is out of a hot barn here this meet...2-World Record, sire Gunrunner is solid here at these conditions...again trainer Brisset gets it done here... I am going to be honest, going back on my notes that I use I can find no recollection of why I included the 10-Yo Banana Boy, but God Bless me if he wins...could use some good news today |
Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat May 04, 2024 6:25 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Mystik Dan
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Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat May 04, 2024 7:01 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: OscarTangoEcho" [quote="Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: OscarTangoEcho wrote: Mystik Dan I'm gonna say this- the next time Liberal Arts meets Mystik Dan, he's gonna kick his teeth down his throat. So, an update... Mystik Dan has all of his teeth, JORR has most of his reputation[/quote] |
Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sun May 05, 2024 8:03 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: OscarTangoEcho wrote: OscarTangoEcho" [quote="Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: OscarTangoEcho wrote: Mystik Dan I'm gonna say this- the next time Liberal Arts meets Mystik Dan, he's gonna kick his teeth down his throat. So, an update... Mystik Dan has all of his teeth, JORR has most of his reputation Fuck Mystik Dan. He needed everything to go perfectly for him. But congratulations to everyone who bet him and to Kenny "Two Turn" McPeek for having him ready on the most important day. I got a thrill for about two seconds when Stone screamed, "Resilience takes the lead." |
Author: | pittmike [ Sun May 05, 2024 9:29 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
I think Olcyzk gave out the winner Friday. |
Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sun May 05, 2024 9:33 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Road to the Derby |
Both Japanese horses raced well, but the less celebrated of the two was just dynamite. I hope he stays in the U.S. |
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