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Phil Steele Predictions
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Author:  Irish Boy [ Fri Jun 17, 2011 11:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Phil Steele Predictions
Phil Steele does the best of the preseason magazines in my opinion, if only for all the information he jams into each one. He puts a lot of emphasis on returning starters and things like "turnover luck" in his predictions, and he generally does a pretty OK job of it, as far as predictions go. Here are his Big Ten projections (note: this was before the Ohio State reckoning):

T-1 Wisconsin
T-1 Ohio State
T-1 Penn State
4 Illinois
5 Purdue
6 Indiana

T-1 Nebraska
T-1 Michigan State
3 Iowa
T-4 Michigan
T-4 Northwestern
6 Minnesota

I think Penn State and Michigan State are too high, and Michigan is too low (Iowa is a bit low too). The conference is wide open, even if Russell Wilson goes to Madison; I can plausibly see any of nine teams winning the conference (sorry Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota).

Every preseason magazine has Nebraska winning their division. I don't think it's that much of a slam dunk, and that division was deeper even before Ohio State blew up.
Author:  spanky [ Fri Jun 17, 2011 11:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Phil Steele Predictions
So you have MSU finishing 4th in their div and Illinois possibly winning the whole thing?
Author:  Irish Boy [ Fri Jun 17, 2011 11:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Phil Steele Predictions
spanky wrote:
So you have MSU finishing 4th in their div and Illinois possibly winning the whole thing?

I think MSU will probably be fourth. I think Illinois will be third in their division, but I can see a scenario where they win (favorable conference schedule). They are the least likely of the nine. Vegas pretty much agrees; Illinois is 20-1, and then there's a huge drop off to the last three at 80-1 or 100-1.
Author:  spanky [ Sat Jun 18, 2011 12:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Phil Steele Predictions
Irish Boy wrote:
They are the least likely of the nine. Vegas pretty much agrees; Illinois is 20-1, and then there's a huge drop off to the last three at 80-1 or 100-1.

Ah. That's different than what I thought you meant. I thought you meant it was a crap-shoot for the top-9.


The reason Nebraska is so heavily favored is because of the rest of the teams in that division as much as what they bring to the table. The alignment is off in this conference, football-wise.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Sat Jun 18, 2011 12:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Phil Steele Predictions
Don't get me started. If they had just split the damn thing in half (Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Minnesota) (Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, Purdue) they would have had the geographic balance and better competitive balance and they wouldn't have split any important rivalries. But then Joe Paterno would have cried or something.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Sat Jun 18, 2011 12:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Phil Steele Predictions
Oh, and no shitty names too.
Author:  Brick [ Sat Jun 18, 2011 10:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Phil Steele Predictions
I can't wait until people once again start to convince themselves that Purdue can be the "surprise team" of the year.

My biggest nightmare is that the team goes 6-6 and Danny Hope keeps his job. I either want 8-4 or 4-8. 4-8 is more likely.
Author:  My_name_1s_MUD [ Mon Jun 20, 2011 8:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Phil Steele Predictions
As long as we beat Io_a, I'm cool.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Mon Jun 20, 2011 12:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Phil Steele Predictions
Maybe I'm stupid, but I don't see the whole Penn State thing here. I was never impressed by them last year and not sure the inner turmoil really helped them much this offseason.

I think Iowa is a 8-4/7-5 type team right now. Maybe the O Line puts it together to take pressure off Vandy, but they feel middle of the big ten to me this year. Lot to recover on D too, losing 6 starters.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Mon Jun 20, 2011 9:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Phil Steele Predictions
I think in a normal year Iowa would be middle of Big Ten, but this is a bad conference next season. I've got them as the third or fourth best team. They won't ask much of Vandenberg and I think he can do what they do ask of him.

I don't get the Penn State love either. And if Rob Bolden really can't win the position away from McGrossman, that offense is going to suffer, regardless of how good Silas Redd is (and he's not that good).
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Tue Jun 21, 2011 10:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Phil Steele Predictions
Irish Boy wrote:
I think in a normal year Iowa would be middle of Big Ten, but this is a bad conference next season. I've got them as the third or fourth best team. They won't ask much of Vandenberg and I think he can do what they do ask of him.
.


I see what you are saying but I don't see the problem spot as the O, but the D. They lose Clayborn, Ballard, Klug, Sash (all drafted) in addition to Hunter and Greenwood. They have to replace essentially 2 d line (Binns and Daniels started at points last year), 1LB and 2 safeties (which are critical in a cover 2). In a perfect world, they would be able to run the ball a lot with Coker, control the clock and keep the D off the field. I can see what you are saying but just think they need to focus on the D.
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