2nd day of the card (postponed) as the track dries out...going to be playing slowly...yesterday was just a slop fest, but they'll actually keep the Ashland on the turf later...

1st race Babies (short sprint for two year olds)...interesting stat...84 winners, 71 had a local workout at this track (7,8,9,10 all had such a drill...)

edit Race 1-8 wins easily, son of Army Mule and trained by Ward who dominates, no surprise even money...the 9 finished 3rd

No wager on the off turf race 2

Race 3 however might have a price...average winners in this race in the spring are 8-1...Bill Mott has 5-Beauty Reigns, Mott's record in this condition 10 races 3 wins 5 2nd's 1 3rd...Brad Cox has won more of these than anyone and sends out the 2-Velvet Vortex

by the way, sortable database fun

http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp

EDIT PRE RACE 5

Race 3 the 5 finished 2nd the 2 4th

no wager in Race 4

Next race 5...the 1-Debt Free will get a nice ride from the rail by Saez...currently the 3rd choice in the will pays for the pick 3 but with 9 minutes left to go paying 8-1...Win Show bet on the 1


See how nice and tidy I'm keeping this thread!

Late Pick 5 starting in Race 6
2, 4, 8 / 2, 5, 8 / 2, 7, 8, 11 / 3, 4, 7 / 6, 7, 11

Race 6 is off the turf and as such a crap shoot
Race 7 Sire Vekoma has 3 boys in here...Last year as a sire he had 9 offspring run here at Kee 5 wins a 2nd and 3rd...Those entered here are the 2,6 and 8
Race 8 on the turf for the Transylvania (not Ashland, sorry) This was a bitch to handicap could easily see the 5,1 or 2 ending up with the photo...good luck here
Race 9 This is the Ashland...on dirt which is back to fast...Cox is tough here and his 4-Muhimma will garner most of the action...still like both the 3 and 7
Race 10 Allowance race to finish it off...tricky but really leaning on the early speed of the 11-Golden Irish to wire them

I'm singled to the 7 in the Transylvania.

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The Court will accord substantial deference to the government's immigration policies, particularly those that implicate matters of national security.

What are you live to?

2 bucks to 3,4,6/9,11,12

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The Court will accord substantial deference to the government's immigration policies, particularly those that implicate matters of national security.

GL

nice single on the last, I couldn't narrow it down

also...thoughts on the new Netflix Doc Series?

no high hopes here

Is the Netflix thing out yet? I think Repole is a douchebag.

That was a bad race. I don't know what's happened to Rosario. Why would he get cute there? He has to send. I put that on me though. Davis inexplicably grabbed up last time with this filly. They were obviously setting her up for this spot.

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The Court will accord substantial deference to the government's immigration policies, particularly those that implicate matters of national security.

out
see you all tomorrow

No I think in a week or two..

yes repole is repulsive

and Prat was asleep in that last

ugh.

Tuesday 4/8

Race 1
2-Camp Hale heavy favorite here with speed figures way above all else…8-Invictus (Cox/Prat) was blown away by Chancer McPatrick (who headlines later today) at Saratoga last summer, working nicely in the am

Race 2
Favorites only win about 24% so I’d look for a price here, and lots to chose from…7 have never been on turf…strong thoughts for the 9-Fateful Lightning (Cox/Saez) and the 12-Excite out of the quality mare Elate…both have two turn turf experience…1-Tomaselo gets Jose Ortiz and the rail off a strong performance in Gulfstream.

Race 3
Think the two outside horses 7-Tip Top Thomas and the 9-Gunmetal ($410K purchase) too fast too strong for this group…the later skipped out of the Lafayette to run here, so…other Sires that impact Keeneland…Vekoma (3-Retribution) and Nyquist (3-Brodeur)

Race 4


Holy crap this is going to be one hell of a finish…virtually all of these horses have not only experience at this distance, but success…and so do the trainers…Horses coming from Gulfstream have won 100 more races than any other prep, only the 1-Irish Aces fits that criterion…Irish Aces has a 1st and 2nd here at Kee already...his jock Ben Curtis is quietly effective…the 2-West Hollywood won a G3 at Saratoga last summer and trainer Brad Cox seems to have been pointing to this start for this horse (gets Prat in the irons)…trainer Chris Block has the 3-Out of Deductions (Nyquist)...favorites win 35%

Race 5
No real strong thoughts here…tends to be formful as average winner about 5/2…only 1 win in 31 tries for first timers…Trainer Cox wins 31% in 1 1/16 dirt races here (45% with favorites-yikes) …he’s got the 2-Shangrala Road here.


Race 2 Pick 4
1, 7, 9, 12 / 2, 7, 9 / 1, 2, 3 / 2, 4

Gonna get fun now...

Race 9 Shakertown Stakes
Please remember that in turf sprints with large fields the 3-4-5 post have an inordinate amount of success…that should remain intact with 3-Arzak (defending champ of this, and Trainer ward has won 4 iterations of this event)…4-Rogue Lighting (tough, tough euro invader) and 5-Valentine Candy


Race 10 Bluegrass (Derby Points 100-50-25-15-10)
This race has been run since Keeneland opened in 1937…23 winners of this race have gone on to win the Derby, 2nd only to the Florida Derby…however none since 2007 (although 5 of last 7 Derby’s had a BG winner 2nd or 3rd)

Tampa horses have done well in this race and a rematch between 4-Owen Almighty and 6-Chancer McPatrick is intriguing, the latter needing to turn tables will need more of a pace setup. 5-East Avenue has thrown out some clunkers last two and should be a price, but man if he can find what he had here last fall at Kee for the Breeders Cup win, could be unstoppable…3-Burnham Square will benefit from the rest (that he didn’t have last time going from a G3 to G2 in about 3 weeks)…look for him to bounce back. 1-River Thames ran quite well in the Fountain of Youth and can’t be overlooked. Tough race, as it should be. Favorites have won 5 of last 6 years…could be one of those Irad/Jose races that leave you scratching your head, so be aware.

All Stakes Pick 5

Race 6
1, 2, 6 / 2, 3, 6 / 2, 7, 8 / 3, 4, 5 / 3, 4, 5, 6

grrrr

Late P3
3, 4, 5 / 3, 4, 5, 6 / 1, 6, 8, 12

Solid card tomorrow a well

I think Burnham Square is a legit Derby contender. This race is shaping up to be the most competitive in years. It's no walkover for Journalism.

I made a great bet today. I'm not sure how much better of a bet one could make without winning. I guess I needed a better opinion in the last race. I keep knocking on the door. I have to finish one of these times.

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The Court will accord substantial deference to the government's immigration policies, particularly those that implicate matters of national security.

damn. that 6 looked like a good bet, the 11...unless you're a bon jovi fan, i don't know what anyone saw (of course some people on my discord picked it and got a p3 payout).

i got a feeling this'll be another derby that you'll wanna fade the favorite.

Thursday 4/10

just rollicking along with P3's...always struggle with horizontal tickets in the Spring here

alive to 3,4,6,8 here in the 3rd

alive through 1 leg to the 3,4,6,8 then the 4,5,6,10

New P3 Race 3
3,4,6,8/4,5,6,10/1,6,7


Man I wish I knew how to print those pretty tickets with saddle cloths of my wagers, instead of just numerically...anyone?

Race 3 pretty impressive ride by Prat on the 3 there...I'll try to post later

Sophie Doyle is a rider that I have great fondness for...almost won this 5th at 15-1...keep an eye on her...she has gained a lot of mounts this meet

This was a good pick up for her as this horse had Luis Seaz (very successful rider here at Kee) scheduled but he's recovering from a spill...so Sophie jumps in (OK her husband is the trainer), after riding this same horse the last two runs...paid a nice $12 for place

and, so as not to redboard

alive in the Pick 4 to the 4,6/1,6/3,4,5,9,10,12

Friday At Keeneland

Race 7…5 ½ on the turf…I’m always harping about the 3,4,5 posts leading to some huge ROIs

Race 9 Makers Mark Mile…the 1-Integration has the rail which is huge in this race…hot pace will aid him even more…6-Carl Spackler will be heavily bet and hard to beat…I really like the 8-Northern Invader to get a perfect pressing trip form the early speed.

Race 10 4-Diver could take them wire to wire, also like the 1-Abundance who ran strong on Pegasus day…and don’t sleep on the way outside 13-Scuba

I have two strong opinions today:

8th Race: 2) Meursault

9th Race: AGAINST Carl Spackler

_________________
The Court will accord substantial deference to the government's immigration policies, particularly those that implicate matters of national security.

So much for that.

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The Court will accord substantial deference to the government's immigration policies, particularly those that implicate matters of national security.

Saturday
Fast and Good today with warm temps and sunny skies...thinking Luis Saez is going to have a big day (granted he's in almost every race, but)...Racr 9 is the Lexington offering a final chance at Derby points, and the 10th is the G1 Jenny Nas

Early pick 3
1,3/2,5,6,8,9/4,6,9,11

I may try to beat Thorpedo Anna with Free Like A Girl.

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The Court will accord substantial deference to the government's immigration policies, particularly those that implicate matters of national security.

chalk, chalk, WHAT THE FUCK...so keeneland.

Ha!

Stupid me I went chalk WTF chalk

Race 6 the 4 Discreet Mischief moves up but if he can replicate his race from a year ago here at kee could win easy

Sire watch here: Code Omaha out of Omaha Beach-here at Kee 24% wins and 1.13 ROI