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| Kentucky Derby 2025 http://www.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=133278 |
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| Author: | JORR [ Wed Apr 30, 2025 5:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Kentucky Derby 2025 |
My first use is going to be Grande. I like almost everything about this horse. The only knocks are his lack of experience- and I'm not sure that's really a knock- and coming back in the standard 28 days off what may have been a taxing Wood Memorial. Give Pletcher 40+ days with a colt this talented and he's tough to beat. He's only got 28 so we'll see. I'm going to be on the Larry Rolla Live podcast tomorrow night at 7:00 to discuss the Derby, the Oaks, and maybe a little harness racing with Freddie Hudson, Mike Antoniades, and Kid Carpenter. |
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| Author: | denisdman [ Wed Apr 30, 2025 6:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
JORR wrote: I'm going to be on the Larry Rolla Live podcast tomorrow night at 7:00 to discuss the Derby, the Oaks, and maybe a little harness racing with Freddie Hudson, Mike Antoniades, and Kid Carpenter. Is the podcast called Mediocre White Men? |
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| Author: | JORR [ Wed Apr 30, 2025 6:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
denisdman wrote: JORR wrote: I'm going to be on the Larry Rolla Live podcast tomorrow night at 7:00 to discuss the Derby, the Oaks, and maybe a little harness racing with Freddie Hudson, Mike Antoniades, and Kid Carpenter. Is the podcast called Mediocre White Men? Extraordinary White Men! |
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| Author: | JORR [ Wed Apr 30, 2025 6:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
I look forward to reading this every year. I don't agree with his selections this year but he's a great writer: https://innisfree.org/pdf/DERBY-2025.pdf |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Wed Apr 30, 2025 7:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
Be sure to like and subscribe, if you have a comment please leave it below but be respectful. This podcast is brought to you by Black Rifle Coffee... |
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| Author: | JORR [ Thu May 01, 2025 6:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
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| Author: | JORR [ Thu May 01, 2025 9:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
| Author: | a retard [ Thu May 01, 2025 9:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
I've got a buddy who is in love with Burnham Square. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Thu May 01, 2025 12:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
It's a tough race to handicap because it all depends on the pace scenario that develops. The last couple years the pace has collapsed and all the horses that led early finished way back in the final placements. If there is no pace collapse, I like Journalism, Citizen Bull, Chunk of Gold, East Ave., Titztastic and Rodriguez. If the pace collapses, I like Journalism, Final Gambit and Burnham Square. I'm not settled on my final picks but I like exactas with at least Journalism, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez. I think East Ave could be dangerous on the lead. Tiztastic will be stalking close trying to steal it. |
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| Author: | JORR [ Thu May 01, 2025 12:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
Looking like Owen Almighty may scratch. That gets Baeza in. In that case Prat moves to Baeza. |
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| Author: | Spaulding [ Thu May 01, 2025 4:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
There are 8 or 9 30-1s and a couple 20-1s. Is that normal? |
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| Author: | JORR [ Thu May 01, 2025 5:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
Spaulding wrote: There are 8 or 9 30-1s and a couple 20-1s. Is that normal? That's just what I consider fair odds on each horse. It's a true 100% line. It isn't worth much unless my opinion is good. Journalism's live odds are currently 7/2. I'm guessing he goes off about 3/1. There are horse in there that have no shot so obviously they are overbet. Rodriguez now out. Baeza draws in and gets Prat. I'd say Baeza has similar chances as Rodriguez did. Maybe slightly less from the 20 hole. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 02, 2025 8:06 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
Fast and Firm today...heavy weather expected around 4pm according to local forecasters...we are under two hours from 1st post...let's make some money |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 02, 2025 8:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
Grande out...sorry JORR |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Fri May 02, 2025 9:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
That was my pick too. Damnit. 
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Fri May 02, 2025 9:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
Saying should get thru today with nice weather, not so much tomorrow. |
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| Author: | JORR [ Fri May 02, 2025 10:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Grande out...sorry JORR Yeah. That sucks. I thought Admit was interesting first time turf and she's scratched too. Kid Carpenter and I supply insights and great thoughts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFlDlp8xxdE&t=874s |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 02, 2025 11:02 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
Race 3 Glacial fractions coming up here…this race may not end before the 4th starts…the 6-World Beater is best at closing but I’d look to the 10, 11 and 12 all with more accomplished jocks to figure out the pace Race 4 Love how the pace sets up for the 3-Stable Currency (Block) Race 5 5-Nitrogen is a single for me here |
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| Author: | JORR [ Fri May 02, 2025 11:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
I'm still alive in the first PK-5. Singled to the 4 here. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 02, 2025 11:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
The 1-Bilyana was 5/1 ml...5th choice in the Pick 3 will pays in a rather contentious field...Currently paying over $8 to finish 3rd I love big fields and I cannot lie |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 02, 2025 11:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
Alive in the P5 to the 5 and 6 Alive in the P4 to the 5 and 2 
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 02, 2025 12:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
OK OK Good start...sitting out this next one but should be interesting...think Fierceness will come back here Race 7 P5 2, 4 / 2, 7, 8 / 5, 8, 10, 12 / 4, 5, 9 / 7, 9, 10, 11, 14 actually punching a double of Fierceness/Anna for $20 |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 02, 2025 1:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
not sure what happened to TA, she was gaining going into final turn but just fell off...good run by Prat to get the 4 home |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Fri May 02, 2025 2:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
i'm in a large group 2-day p6 ticket pot...we had like 20 total tickets...1 is left.  wasn't my idea to go so hard on TA, but...i wasn't in charge.
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| Author: | Spaulding [ Fri May 02, 2025 2:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
JORR wrote: That's just what I consider fair odds on each horse. It's a true 100% line. It isn't worth much unless my opinion is good. Journalism's live odds are currently 7/2. I'm guessing he goes off about 3/1. There are horse in there that have no shot so obviously they are overbet. Rodriguez now out. Baeza draws in and gets Prat. I'd say Baeza has similar chances as Rodriguez did. Maybe slightly less from the 20 hole. I had an uncle that always placed a bet for the longest shot to win, so I look. I don't ever remember so many 30-1, just seemed high. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 02, 2025 2:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
W_Z wrote: i'm in a large group 2-day p6 ticket pot...we had like 20 total tickets...1 is left. wasn't my idea to go so hard on TA, but...i wasn't in charge.It is nearly impossible to go through a sequence like that and not find a single...that blew up many tickets |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 02, 2025 2:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
Just keep an eye out on the Toteboard for the 8-Blue Fire currently at 9-1...this horse has won 4/5 last starts recently along with a 2nd, and gets Jose Ortiz in the irons...nice price |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Fri May 02, 2025 3:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Just keep an eye out on the Toteboard for the 8-Blue Fire currently at 9-1...this horse has won 4/5 last starts recently along with a 2nd, and gets Jose Ortiz in the irons...nice price Ran a hell of a race. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 02, 2025 3:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
Well the 11 knocked me out of the horizontals that I was in, although that 8 paid very nicely $ Late P4 4.5.9 6.7.9.11.14 6.7.10 8.10.12 see you all tomorrow |
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| Author: | a retard [ Fri May 02, 2025 4:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby 2025 |
Oaks: 9 W, P 6,9,11,14 exacta box Oaks- Derby Double: 2,11,14 / 8,9,14 |
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