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 Post subject: Mid Season Sox Review
PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:58 am 
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We've played 81 games. Half way done. Since baseball went to 3 divisions in each league I don't think there have ever been a run like the 3 teams in the AL central have made. The Twins would be the best team in the National League. No doubt in my mind. They won't make the playoffs in the AL. We're in the toughest division in the baseball. That makes the Sox 53 wins that much more impressive. On pace to get 106 wins. Not bad.

I think we'll catch the Tigers but even if we don't there is no difference in getting the wild card. We're 7 up on the Yankees for that spot.

Even though Garcia, Garland and Vasquez have huge ERA's i'm not worried about them. Alot of those ERA's are inflated because of 3 god awful starts by each of them. Kenny's gonna get another bull pen guy soon. Also keep in mind that Vasquez will go to the bullpen once the playoffs start. He'll have the role the El Duke had last year. Remarkably every pitcher on the staff is 4 games over .500. Alot of that goes to the run support they've been given but I still think all 5 are solid.

The offense is the best in baseball. Thome, Dye, and Konerko are on pase to get 40 homers. Crede joins them on the pace for 100 RBI's. Uribe and Iguchi will be close to 80 RBI's. Even Pods is gonna get 60. Nobody has a better bench then the Sox. Ozuna has close to 100 at bats and is batting .425. That shows you that Ozzie is using him perfectly because if he plays every day he's a .270 hitter at best. Cintron can start for 10 other teams.

I don't think Jenks is getting the appreciation nationally by his dominance. He's 25 out of 26 in saves. His ERA is under 1 in his last 15 outings.

I said in May that the playoffs are a lock. I'm not going to sit here and say the World Series is a lock. You can never say that about any team in baseball. Anything can happen in a playoff series. Pitchers and hitters can go cold. I'll just say that there is no team in a better position then us to succeed. I give us the edge over the Tigers. I'm not diminishing how good they are. It's just we've been through it and they haven't. That being said, it didn't help Boston last year when they played us. But we are in better shape to repeat then Boston was last year.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 2:20 pm 
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Even though Garcia, Garland and Vasquez have huge ERA's i'm not worried about them. Alot of those ERA's are inflated because of 3 god awful starts by each of them. Kenny's gonna get another bull pen guy soon. Also keep in mind that Vasquez will go to the bullpen once the playoffs start. He'll have the role the El Duke had last year. Remarkably every pitcher on the staff is 4 games over .500. Alot of that goes to the run support they've been given but I still think all 5 are solid.


...But the fact is our ERA is almost a run higher than last year and about a run higher than Detroit's. Playoff games are generally won with pitching, not hitting. Add to these stats the inconsistency of the pitchers you mentioned, Contreras' 5+ ERA since coming off the DL, and Buehrle's up-and-down season....and there's plenty of reasons to worry.

Everybody assumes Kenny will make a good move before the trading deadline. But so will Dombrowski--maybe he'll make two, in fact. So the White Sox starters better find some consistency--and soon.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 3:43 pm 
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The pitching has been disapointing. But it's good enough, with this lineup, to get to the playoffs. In the playoffs all you need is 3 solid starters. I'll take Conterous, Buehrle, and Garcia over the Tigers top 3. The Sox can choose to use Garland but with days off in the playoffs they can also choose to skip him. Last year they used 4 and it worked out. Garland been pretty good his last 5 outings.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:18 pm 
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I wouldn't say that I am "worried" about the White Sox pitchers, even after the batting practice Buerhle threw to the Cubs yesterday.... alhough I WILL say that I am "concerned". Furthermore, this concern really has nothing to do with the starters as it does with the bullpen. I will be man enough to admit, after a long duration of supporting him I might add, that Cliff Poliette (sp?) needs to hit the road. If Kenny can somehow get us a solid reliever in Cliff's place, I will feel a ton better about our chances in the playoffs.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:33 am 
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I think most of the concern over the Sox pitching has been overblown. They play in a park that heavily favors hitters and the AL is full of sick lineups of course. The Tigers pitching has been great to this point, however Kenny Rogers has a history of 2nd half fades and let's see Verlander in August as his innings continue to pile up.

I heard Terry talk up Schilling, Beckett, and Papelbon yesterday as being a trio of pitchers you don't want to face in the playoffs while saying the White Sox pitching worries him, but I'm trying to figure out how they are any better than Contreras, Buehrle, and Jenks?


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 12:26 pm 
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The Red Sox are playing 1 game above .500 on the road. Maybe Terry needs to review how many games of a 7 game series are played away from home by the team with the worse record.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:21 pm 
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Shcillings numbers are OK put they are not dominant. Before Buerle's last start he had a better ERA. This is not the same Shilling that dominated the playoffs 2 years ago. He's defidently not the Shilling he was in Arizona. Beckett is solid and so is there closer. But I would never trade Buerle, Contrarous and Jenks for there trio. I doubt any GM would do it. I have to keep reminding people that Jenks is now 26 out of 27 in saves. He's saved 17 in a row.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:30 pm 
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I have to keep reminding people that Jenks is now 26 out of 27 in saves. He's saved 17 in a row.


And very few of which, even if you include last night, have been a high-wire act. He's been damn near automatic. That 97mph cut fastball to the inner half that he was throwing last night was filthy. I do think however that sooner or later an opposing manager or player will take issue with his celebratory theatrics. They're nowhere near Zambrano's, but some crusty old baseball guy (more than likely Uncle Bucky) will probably get his panties in a twist over it.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:54 pm 
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Beckett with his 4.6 ERA is basically Javy Vazquez if he pitched his home games at the cell. Seems like Terry and Dan are setting up for a "we told you so" if/when the Sox don't repeat. Fact is they are right on track for the playoffs and once you get there luck has a lot to do with who advances in short series. Wasn't Terry (along with a lot of others) big on the Indians winning the central this year?


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 2:20 pm 
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MartyD wrote:
Beckett with his 4.6 ERA is basically Javy Vazquez ?


More like Freddy.

Many people feel that it is okay for the Sox to simply make the playoffs. I see it as being incredibly important for them to win the division this year because of the dramatic dropoff after the first three teams. As bad as the White Sox have played in Oakland, I would rather play there than Boston in the first round. Also, it would give Mariotti a chance to focus on the Frank Thomas angle. One day he would write about Thomas being the Big Skirt. The next day he would write about what a mistake it was for Reinsdorf to let him go.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:05 pm 
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I'm not so sure I would rather play in Oakland than Boston. We didn't seem to do too bad against the Red Sox last postseason, so for the sake of experience I say keep it in Boston.

Of course, I'm not about to get picky here and just be satisfied with another playoff appearance.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 11:07 am 
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The Red Sox are playing 1 game above .500 on the road. Maybe Terry needs to review how many games of a 7 game series are played away from home by the team with the worse record.


...On the other hand, if the Red Sox can win all of their home games, they will need to win only one on the road. They can go 1-3 on the road and still win the series. Not a big deal.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 11:10 am 
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I think most of the concern over the Sox pitching has been overblown. They play in a park that heavily favors hitters and the AL is full of sick lineups of course.


Hmmm...So the Sox didn't play at the Cell last year and the AL wasn't loaded with "sick lineups"?

I'm just wondering since the Sox's team ERA was about a run lower last year...


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:15 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
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I think most of the concern over the Sox pitching has been overblown. They play in a park that heavily favors hitters and the AL is full of sick lineups of course.


Hmmm...So the Sox didn't play at the Cell last year and the AL wasn't loaded with "sick lineups"?

I'm just wondering since the Sox's team ERA was about a run lower last year...


The total ERA in the AL is up about a quarter of run from last year.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:21 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
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The Red Sox are playing 1 game above .500 on the road. Maybe Terry needs to review how many games of a 7 game series are played away from home by the team with the worse record.


...On the other hand, if the Red Sox can win all of their home games, they will need to win only one on the road. They can go 1-3 on the road and still win the series. Not a big deal.


Ah, but the flip side of it is that the Sox have an excellent record on the road. It is not as good as last year but it is still among the best in the league. Couple that with the best home record in baseball and I think you can see why I'd be optimistic about playing the Red Sox with home field advantage.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 2:50 pm 
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Ah, but the flip side of it is that the Sox have an excellent record on the road. It is not as good as last year but it is still among the best in the league. Couple that with the best home record in baseball and I think you can see why I'd be optimistic about playing the Red Sox with home field advantage.


I'm not disputing that the White Sox are good team, just pointing out that winning one game on the road wouldn't be too difficult for the Red Sox. Historically speaking, though, does home field really matter that much in the baseball playoffs?


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 2:53 pm 
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The total ERA in the AL is up about a quarter of run from last year.


So then White Sox pitching has disproportionately declined compared to last year, no?

Let me put it another way: If the playoffs were to begin today, how confident would you feel in the White Sox's top 3 starters?


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 3:34 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
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The total ERA in the AL is up about a quarter of run from last year.


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So then White Sox pitching has disproportionately declined compared to last year, no?

Let me put it another way: If the playoffs were to begin today, how confident would you feel in the White Sox's top 3 starters?


I'd feel the Sox top 3 starters could hold their own against any of the other top 3 starters from the potential playoff teams. Contreras and Buehrle are solid and I believe that by the time the playoffs roll around one of Garland, Garcia, or Vazquez will be a compatent 3rd starter for a playoff team. Heck, don't rule out McCarthy stepping into that spot if need be.

Let me ask you, which potential playoff team's top 3 pitchers scare you?


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 3:58 pm 
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I'd feel the Sox top 3 starters could hold their own against any of the other top 3 starters from the potential playoff teams. Contreras and Buehrle are solid and I believe that by the time the playoffs roll around one of Garland, Garcia, or Vazquez will be a compatent 3rd starter for a playoff team. Heck, don't rule out McCarthy stepping into that spot if need be.

Let me ask you, which potential playoff team's top 3 pitchers scare you?


I was asking about the Sox's pitching right now, not the end of the season. Everyone around here seems to assume that the starters will "come around" by season's end even as they admit that the pitching is currently inconsistent.

If the playoffs were to begin today, Detroit's pitching would be a concern. Again, though, everybody seems to believe that their staff will weaken by season's end. But if this is the "conventional wisdom", then surely Dombrowski is aware of it and will make some moves to bolster his team. If I were him, I'd load up on as much pitching as possible.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 5:00 pm 
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[I was asking about the Sox's pitching right now, not the end of the season. Everyone around here seems to assume that the starters will "come around" by season's end even as they admit that the pitching is currently inconsistent.

If the playoffs were to begin today, Detroit's pitching would be a concern. Again, though, everybody seems to believe that their staff will weaken by season's end. But if this is the "conventional wisdom", then surely Dombrowski is aware of it and will make some moves to bolster his team. If I were him, I'd load up on as much pitching as possible.[/quote]

Detroit pitching would have me concerned as well. Good starters but even more importantly, great relievers. Their weakest point is probably closer as I feel Jones is far overachieving his talents. The possiblity of Smoltz is particularly troubling as he is great in relief as well as starting.

Getting to the Sox though...Contrearas had a 3-4 game hiccup after coming off the DL. This was most likely caused by a small change in his release. Cooper recognized the problem, fixed it and Jose went out and threw a shut out. I expect a return to the previous form of best pitcher in the AL over the last 12 months.

Buhrle has openly stated that he was bored pitching against lesser teams...and then the Cubs and Pirates promptly stepped up and slapped him around. Before that, Buhrle had an ERA hovering around 3. This weekend will be telling about him being reinvigorated against top teams. I expect him to throw a great game tonight. I have no worries about Buhrle.

Am I the only one who has recognized how Garland has pitched for the last month or so? I believe the guy had an ERA under 4 in his last 5 starts. While I don't consider him a lock to pitch well, the guy is shaping into last years form.

Again, all of you are assuming 3 starters. Teams conventionally go with 4 unless they are about to be swept. Freddy is inconsistent. However, he has an amazingly different track record on the road than he does at home. The success is further accentuated in road day games, which the Sox will be able to schedule for him in a playoff series. Freddy is a big game pitcher.

I think the relief problem will be minimized in the playoffs. The Sox have two lefties in Cotts and Thorton who I trust. This gives them all the ability in the world to do the micromanging that comes in the playoffs. I expect Mc Carthy to shine kind of like Papelbon did last year. Jenks is nearly automatic. Javier Vazquez will also be in the pen come playoff time. That leaves ONE back end reliever position to worry about. I fully expect KW to pull someone like Gordon, Rhodes, Hernandez etc. in a trade.

In the end, I like the Sox pitching. I like their starters better than Detroit. I like their entire staff better than Boston. I don't think Oakland will be able to match the Sox run for run. New York and Texas...please. Toronto would give the Sox the toughest time. Good pitching all around, excellent closer, good hitting.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 5:23 pm 
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TM, the Sox have beat the crap out of Detroit this year even though the pitching staff isn't performing as well as they did last year.


Yes, but they still have 13 games left to play against one another. These games will most likely decide the division and should prove very interesting.....


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 12:40 am 
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....You can add Boston to the list of teams that make me nervous. They've thoroughly outplayed the Sox in the first two games of this series. Mackowiak should only be used in centerfield if we need offense in the late innings. The guy is a butcher out there. And the starting pitching continues to struggle. Was Buehrle bored against the Red Sox, too?


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 1:44 am 
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Does Boston make me nervous? Ofcourse. Game two of the series was a well played game. We had a rally in the seventh and eighth. Bases loaded with chances for Thome, Konerko and Dye. Boston shut them all down. Give them credit. That won't happen to often if ever again this year. But Boston has problems too. How did Becket look in game two? Looks beatable to me. Yes we can lose to them in a playoff series. I would have said that Boston could beat us even if we won the first 2 games in this series. I don't think we should analyze this probable postseason match up untill its upon us. It's all about the pitching matchups at the time October rolls around. Will we be able to set the rotation? Will they? Remember last year we missed Shilling because they needed him to pitch the last game of the season. Who will be hot then? We'll see. It's gonna be a tight postseason in the American League no matter the matchups of any of the 4 teams that make it.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 8:54 am 
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Game two of the series was a well played game.


Not really--the White Sox did not look good defensively and that's another concern for me. Mackowiak's miscue helped ignite Boston's offense, but it also looked to me (I was at this game) that Cintron let a ball through that he should've gotten and there was at least one double-play opportunity that the Sox failed to convert into two outs. Right now, their defense simply isn't as sharp as last season. Part of the problem is that our bench players--Ozuna, Cintron, and Mackowiak--are very good offensively, but average (Cintron) or below average (the other two) at the positions Ozzie plays them most frequently. Our fielding is giving additional opportunities to opposing hitters and they are taking advantage, forcing our pitchers to work even harder than they normally would.

And Beckett is beatable only if our pitchers can get the Boston hitters out. They haven't thus far. The starters need to get their act together because they are just plain bad right now. And the relievers have been less than inspiring, too. Jenks' dominance won't matter if the other pitchers can't hold a lead. Hopefully, Contreras wil come through today....

It's time to stop looking at the season through the lens of 2005 and start analyzing it independently of last year. The Sox currently more closely resemble the 2000 team than they do last year's squad.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 1:00 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
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Game two of the series was a well played game.


Not really--the White Sox did not look good defensively and that's another concern for me. Mackowiak's miscue helped ignite Boston's offense, but it also looked to me (I was at this game) that Cintron let a ball through that he should've gotten and there was at least one double-play opportunity that the Sox failed to convert into two outs. Right now, their defense simply isn't as sharp as last season. .


Don't forget a run scoring single late in the game that Podsednik misread and had to let drop.

It's a bad first two games but Boston's pitching still does not concern me. Beckett has been above or near a 5 ERA all year. He said after the game he had his good stuff yesterday and the Sox still hit it. I was shocked the Sox 3-4-5 did not pound those two ham-and-egger relief pitchers Boston threw with bases loaded.

Boston's offense is good. That is the reason they are dangerous.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 1:12 pm 
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Boston's offense is good. That is the reason they are dangerous.


I agree, but would also add that they look very good defensively. They are not making the mistakes they made last year.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 1:18 pm 
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You are right about that. The other Alex Gonzalez looked solid. Trot Nixon saved a run. Coco is an amazing outfielder.

Hit it to Manny and keep running.


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