One Post wrote:
denisdman wrote:
One Post wrote:
Texas has been “open” for a month. Every day there are restaurants announcing Covid closures. Every day.
These restaurants are closing during a time of massive government assistance. Anyone who thinks a restaurant can operate for any duration at 25 or 50 percent capacity has no idea how that industry works.
When summer rolls around, absent more government aid, it will get pretty ugly.
Hospitality is going to take it on the chin for sure. Aggregate incomes will necessarily be down despite the squawking about people getting paid more not to work. That extra money only lasts so long.
But I see all the old faces at my favorite places. I heard a woman in the grocery tell another guy that her work called her back, and she starts next Monday. We aren’t headed back to 4% unemployment, but I think things will recover to reasonable levels pretty quickly.
I see a time of creative destruction.
The quoted has a bit of what I call “ We will be alright” bias. When someone says “we will be alright”, what they are saying most of the time is “I definitely will be alright, oh, and you will likely be alright also”.
The difference between definitely, and likely is a chasam. Denis, you will be alright and so will the people in your traditional circles, you just don’t interact enough with people who most definitely will not be alright.
It’s fair to say I will be alright.
I have a different view of the market because I interact with thousands of small businesses and nonprofits in the course of my employment as a business insurer. We are asking about their survival plans and reopening schedules. I also get a great view from sitting on conference calls with CFO’s.
And then I live in mainly blue collar communities, definitely up here in WI, but the Dundee area is decidedly blue collar. Outside of my professional circles, most of my interactions are with blue collar folks. The majority of my family is blue collar, six siblings.
I try to bring an even keeled perspective understanding that my personal situation is not reflective of the median/average American.