The only chance to move up is to the first three spots; otherwise you are ordered by inverse records. So the last team in the lottery picks one spot ahead of the East #9 team (which the Bulls would be) - ultimately a one or two spot swing.

Making the playoffs is worth getting a player that is one spot lower.

Well there's only a top 3 pick up for grabs. And while Evan Turner, Wall, or Cousins/Favors could help out substantially, if the Bulls finish in the 12th or 13th spot, I believe their total odds for getting any of those is about 1% or less.

It's well known that the NBA Playoffs almost always are a "Old Guard teaches young guys the ropes" tournament. Teams have to take their lumps in the postseason. LeBron did it at first. Jordan obviously famously did it. The Nuggets last year credited getting to the WCF and giving the Lakers a good battle with making 3 previous times and not getting out of the first round. Basically, if you have a young team, and the Bulls core is very young, you do anything you can to get in the playoffs and let the chips fall where they may.

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So what? That is not mutually exclusive with the argument that it is better for the team to make the playoffs than sit at home.

I stand corrected. I forgot that only the 3 spots are up for grabs.

You are right they are not mutually exclusive. If you think the experience the young Bulls will gain from this playoff experience is important than thats fine. You have every right to that opinion. However outside of Rose and Noah (who is risking injury by playing more) I do not really care if these Bulls are getting playoff reps. Heinrich and Deng have been to the playoffs plenty and aren't exactly cornerstone pieces to begin with. Hopefully James Johnson and Chris Richard get alot out of their playoff experience.

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Every team in the East except Orlando and Cleveland should lose every game on purpose.

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Let's make a deal. Stop posting stupid meatball stuff, and I wont criticize you. If you cant take criticism on this board, hey I dont know what to tell you.

You can find sports books that will give you odds on every series. I'd be willing to bet that the Cavs would be about 80-1 favorite to beat the Bulls in the series. That would mean the Bulls, according to them, have a better chance of beating the Cavs than winning the lottery.

Rose has already taken a big step from his rookie year. He's improved pretty much every facet except defense. His shot was pretty bad last year, now he has an incredible mid range jump shot. He's also gotten much better at asserting himself late in games(6-6 FG, 5-5 FT in the 4th last night). So yes, considering the history of the NBA, I think it's quite reasonable to assume that making the playoffs will help him progress than not making it. Super young teams have to take their beatings to learn the ropes. Thats what this is all about.

No, Im not gonna tell my grandkids about the Vinny era, I'm gonna try to erase it from my mind like the Tim Floyd era. But this isnt about some scrappy Bad News Bears bullshit. It's about a superstar (Rose) trying to reach his potential and him, Noah, Gibson, and Deng showing to another FA that they are better than NYK, LAC, or the other suitors. Being on national TV and if they can take a game or maybe even two, that would be a shitload more impressive than just pinning your fates on the >1% of getting a top 3 pick, who may or may not be a bust.

And guys, thats cool if you disagree with me, but please do not take the "Noah is risking injury" route. It's the end of the damn season either way and from what I've read, he is in no danger at all of risking long term injuries a la Yao.

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I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Damn, you'd think so right? Way too many wannabe Bernsteins with the "If you dont win a championship, you were a failure" attitudes. I guess according to them the OKC Thunder will have had a terrible season since they wont win the championship.

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I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

When did I say I couldn't take being criticzied. Now that you have laid out an argument beyond Thats ridiculous I am happy to hear what you have to say. Call me a meatball all you like it really doesn't bother me.

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I'm lazy. That's ridiculous is way easier to type than the previous post.

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

You really think that Atlanta and Boston have the same chances as the Bulls of making it out of the east?

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Boston has been fading this year. I really think they could get swept by the Cavs or Orlando and if they play Miami in the first round I think they will lose too. The Hawks would probably lose in 5 or 6 games to the Cavs or Magic. But they will beat the Bogut-less Bucks pretty easily in the first round.

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Yeah Boston's age seems like it is catching up to them there are alot of miles on their best players besides Rondo. But I think the Hawks will be a tough out in the playoffs....Just ask Bagels. Additionally I just found out that I am going to get hooked up with a free ticket for the playoffs if the Bulls make it tonight so forget everything I have said in this thread and Go Bulls!

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To me the argument is simple as this- like was mentioned earlier by whoever- the Bulls are freaking ONE GAME away from making the playoffs. It's not like they are only "mathematically" alive and risking a great deal by doing anything. I would agree that if it were a stretch...sure, shut everyone down. But it isn't, it's very possible and very real. I would rather the players get more experience in the playoffs than having remote chance at a high draft pick. This team doesn't need any more young players anyway, especially middle 1st round/mediocre ones

Yes the Hawks WILL be a tough out, believe that. Thank you for your support

Random Thoughts:

1. WELCOME BACK NAS
2. NSJ- love the suit, but your are killing me with your diatribe over picking a stupid pizza place.
3. That Celtic guard ass kicking last night was fun to see. Kurt gets a little edgy against them. I like it.
4. All NBA playoff talk...wrong thread.

Thank you

The last team in has a 1.8% chance of landing one of the top 3.

I think the Bulls have a about double the odds of winning the series than landing a top 5 pick.

Zero Games: 50%
1 Game: 20%
2 games: 15%
3 games: 9%
4 games: 4%

But again, my argument for the playoffs is not about the expectations of winning.

IIRC the Magic had like a 25% chance of getting the first pick the year they took Howard. They were pretty bad. Not the same at all really. And of course the Bulls odds are better than 0 to beat Cleveland. I'd say >3%, but that's still better than the chances of winning the lottery, and I'd say the other upsides far outweigh the downsides.

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

What were the odds for the Bulls to win the lottery when they got the Rose pick?

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I think it was 1.7%. Not really sure. Either way, I think it's bad philosophy to hope for lightning to strike twice. What were the odds of Chicago playing one of the most exciting series ever against Boston?

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

The Bulls have a .7% chance of winning the lottery if they dont make the playoffs.

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Technically, 1.7%, but come on. It was 100%. The fix was in.

We'll see what Vegas thinks. I'll post it in here if the Bulls make it. Usually they arent wrong. Either way, the sure upsides of making it outweigh the downsides of not making it. There's a natural progression to the top in the NBA, and it doesnt involve constantly missing the playoffs untill you are ready to win the title.

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I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Bingo.

Guys like Bosh, Wade, Lebron, Johnson, etc.. will not want to go to a lottery team. If the Bulls make it in and put up a decent effort, it gives your guys experience, and makes the organization look better (which they could use after PaxGate).

Let's say they tank instead and go to the lottery. They will not get a top 3 pick (it ain't going to happen twice), so they will be picking last in the lottery (I think that's the 13th or 14th pick). That means they will be drafting another guy with similar talent to James Johnson. They don't need to draft another project. They have all the pieces in place if they can acquire a big name guy. They're going to get somebody this offseason. Even if it's a Joe Johnson, they will still be a top 4 team in the east next year. Keeping yourself in the Eastern Conference blob of suck will only hurt your chances of landing one of the big name guys. We're not going to be drafting John Wall. That's why you make the playoffs.

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They would actually have to swap their pick with the Bucks as part of the Salmons deal so they will be picking even lower.

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I said earlier I thought Vegas would have them at 80-1. I think thats reasonable. I just checked, Sportsbook.com has them at 200-1 to win the NBA Finals right now, ahead of the Bucks and Bobcats(300-1) and they arent even in it yet. Most sportsbooks make money for a reason, they know how to set lines. Ask Coast.

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

The Bulls would have a 2.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick I believe.

Playoff experience is overrated when that playoff experience is getting your ass handed to you in 4 games. Jordan's famed playoff experience was getting hammered in the first round for 3 years. Do you know when that started to "pay off"? When Jordan started getting better players around him, a new coach, and they actually started winning a couple playoff games and a series or two. That's what the Bulls need and are planning on anyway - new players.

And any Free Agents will have eyes and understand the difference between a lottery team that missed the playoffs by 1 game and the 8 seed in the Conference isn't really that great. Free Agents are going to care about -

1 - Money
2 - Teammates
3 - Coaches

Playoffs or no playoffs will not impact that. Draft choices may and if it is Cousins, Turner, or Wall it will significantly.

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I dont agree with that Doc. Look at Atlanta going 37-45 two years ago. Noone gave them a chance to do anything against the Celtics, especially after the first two blowout losses on the road in the series. They ended up taking Boston to 7 games and have progressed significantly the past two seasons, all with the same roster, all who were pretty young/inexperienced in the playoffs who have gotten better in the second season. Now they are the third best team in the East. Their only real roster change was adding Jamal Crawford this year.

I think playoff experience is underrated over 7 game series. I think it is overrated in the NFL. But untill you go through those series and that kind of intensity and differently officiated games, I dont think a good regular season can prepare you for it.

I guess none of us know for sure. But I'm trusting all the NBA people I've ever heard speak about the topic. Very rarely does anyone ever say experience doesnt matter, and I think the facts and NBA playoff history support that.

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Right, and what's your point? Doc took a Magic team who pretty easily won the ECF and your guy SVG to a 7 game series right after that without his best player. If KG was at 100% last year, we are talking about the back to back Champion Celtics right now. The year of the Atlanta series they ended up beating your guy Phil in 6 games, including a horrible, embarrassing 39 point beatdown to close it out. You sleep on Doc too much, especially for someone who has SVG ranked 6th.

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

But, that's the key, isn't it? Atlanta had their young talent already. The nucleus was almost, if not completely, there. Do you think this Bulls team has what it needs? Don't get me wrong. It's not like I think playoff experience against Cleveland is going to hurt them but I don't see the team getting much out of it. Maybe I'm wrong and they'll win 2 or 3 games but I don't see it.

I'm not going to lose any sleep over them making the playoffs if they do. I understand that a 2% chance is bad. But, I'd love to see and significantly value having Evan Turner on the Bulls next year a lot more than I'd value the ethereal incremental utility of four "playoff experience" 20 point losses.

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My Maserati does 186.