We'll see what Vegas thinks. I'll post it in here if the Bulls make it. Usually they arent wrong. Either way, the sure upsides of making it outweigh the downsides of not making it. There's a natural progression to the top in the NBA, and it doesnt involve constantly missing the playoffs untill you are ready to win the title.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Bingo.

Guys like Bosh, Wade, Lebron, Johnson, etc.. will not want to go to a lottery team. If the Bulls make it in and put up a decent effort, it gives your guys experience, and makes the organization look better (which they could use after PaxGate).

Let's say they tank instead and go to the lottery. They will not get a top 3 pick (it ain't going to happen twice), so they will be picking last in the lottery (I think that's the 13th or 14th pick). That means they will be drafting another guy with similar talent to James Johnson. They don't need to draft another project. They have all the pieces in place if they can acquire a big name guy. They're going to get somebody this offseason. Even if it's a Joe Johnson, they will still be a top 4 team in the east next year. Keeping yourself in the Eastern Conference blob of suck will only hurt your chances of landing one of the big name guys. We're not going to be drafting John Wall. That's why you make the playoffs.

_________________

They would actually have to swap their pick with the Bucks as part of the Salmons deal so they will be picking even lower.

_________________

I said earlier I thought Vegas would have them at 80-1. I think thats reasonable. I just checked, Sportsbook.com has them at 200-1 to win the NBA Finals right now, ahead of the Bucks and Bobcats(300-1) and they arent even in it yet. Most sportsbooks make money for a reason, they know how to set lines. Ask Coast.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

The Bulls would have a 2.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick I believe.

Playoff experience is overrated when that playoff experience is getting your ass handed to you in 4 games. Jordan's famed playoff experience was getting hammered in the first round for 3 years. Do you know when that started to "pay off"? When Jordan started getting better players around him, a new coach, and they actually started winning a couple playoff games and a series or two. That's what the Bulls need and are planning on anyway - new players.

And any Free Agents will have eyes and understand the difference between a lottery team that missed the playoffs by 1 game and the 8 seed in the Conference isn't really that great. Free Agents are going to care about -

1 - Money
2 - Teammates
3 - Coaches

Playoffs or no playoffs will not impact that. Draft choices may and if it is Cousins, Turner, or Wall it will significantly.

_________________
My Maserati does 186.

I dont agree with that Doc. Look at Atlanta going 37-45 two years ago. Noone gave them a chance to do anything against the Celtics, especially after the first two blowout losses on the road in the series. They ended up taking Boston to 7 games and have progressed significantly the past two seasons, all with the same roster, all who were pretty young/inexperienced in the playoffs who have gotten better in the second season. Now they are the third best team in the East. Their only real roster change was adding Jamal Crawford this year.

I think playoff experience is underrated over 7 game series. I think it is overrated in the NFL. But untill you go through those series and that kind of intensity and differently officiated games, I dont think a good regular season can prepare you for it.

I guess none of us know for sure. But I'm trusting all the NBA people I've ever heard speak about the topic. Very rarely does anyone ever say experience doesnt matter, and I think the facts and NBA playoff history support that.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Right, and what's your point? Doc took a Magic team who pretty easily won the ECF and your guy SVG to a 7 game series right after that without his best player. If KG was at 100% last year, we are talking about the back to back Champion Celtics right now. The year of the Atlanta series they ended up beating your guy Phil in 6 games, including a horrible, embarrassing 39 point beatdown to close it out. You sleep on Doc too much, especially for someone who has SVG ranked 6th.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

But, that's the key, isn't it? Atlanta had their young talent already. The nucleus was almost, if not completely, there. Do you think this Bulls team has what it needs? Don't get me wrong. It's not like I think playoff experience against Cleveland is going to hurt them but I don't see the team getting much out of it. Maybe I'm wrong and they'll win 2 or 3 games but I don't see it.

I'm not going to lose any sleep over them making the playoffs if they do. I understand that a 2% chance is bad. But, I'd love to see and significantly value having Evan Turner on the Bulls next year a lot more than I'd value the ethereal incremental utility of four "playoff experience" 20 point losses.

_________________
My Maserati does 186.

Well I guess we have a bit different view on the current team. If there was a 15% chance of getting Evan Turner, I'd definitely rather miss the playoffs. But given the dramatically low odds of a top 3 pick(Also I'm pretty sure Cousins will be a bust, but thats off topic), I think the playoffs are the obvious route.

I do think they have the team right now. But the fact is they WILL get someone in FA. A substantially good player who can help them get over the hump like Atlanta did. I think Rose has just begun to learn how to be a superstar, and remember he was really limited the first 15-20 games of the season. I think him + Noah is a fantastic foundation for a team. If you have a superstar PG and an almost All Star Center, swingmen are easier to find. Add someone like JJ, Lee, Boozer, etc. and that's a top 3-4 roster in the East even if they dont get Wade/Bron/Bosh. If they do get Wade or Bron, they are the favorites in the East next season, or at least one of the top 4-5 favorites in the league.

Also I dont see 4 20 point losses to Cleveland. I think there's a big difference between this team and an 8 seed like Detroit last year. This team seems to have a pretty resiliant spirit about them and a hunger to get better and play well. And this is not a normal 40-41 team. They went 0-10 without Noah and 9-4 since he's been back. Deng/Rose/Noah - their three best players - all missed significant time and/or were pretty limited physically for a period of time. I just think this is a better team than alot of people think it is due to all their injuries(not to mention one of the worst coaches in the league at the helm, who also happens to be completely powerless and doesnt seem to command any respect)

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

I agree that they are a great foundation. And, while I like Noah quite a bit, I still don't know what to make of him. He's good and I guess he is an almost All-Star if he continues to develop as he has he probably will be one. But, I guess in my mind I look at this roster and think that at least 2 of the best 4 and possibly 2 of the best 3 players of your future Finals-type team are not yet on this roster.



I was at the game where their resilient spirit and hunger blew a 35 point lead to Sacramento in about 14 minutes, so you'll excuse me if my perspective is a little different. But, I've seen a number of games where they have battled, particularly with their best players out. What was that game about 3 weeks ago against Dallas where Acie Law led them back from down 20?

I hope you're right about this team. That they are better now than I believe but I just disagree. I'll still root for them in the playoffs to win but I guess my position has been that I've not-so-secretly been hoping that they catch lightning in a bottle in the lottery.

_________________
My Maserati does 186.

I guess it all depends on Rose. Noah might be the 2nd best player on the Cavs if he was sent there right now. They have a great chance of being champs. I'm not saying Rose will turn into Noah, but the expectation is that he will be a franchise player and be almost that good. If this team got Wade, I think they are perennial title contenders instantly, regardless of other FA's or draft positioning.



Obviously inexcusable, but because it behooves my argument, Im gonna chalk the Sacramento game as ups and downs of the NBA season. I think alot of the wild fluctuations you see in performance is due in great part to having a horrible coach. I think/hope Rose seems to be getting what it takes to be a franchise player, to go 100% every game, every play, and to take over in 4th quarters. I think the team we saw against Boston last night is more indicitive of the team we have than the team that lost to the Kings.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

I agree. He wouldn't be my first choice but if they get Wade, a great draft would be gravy and this year's playoff experience won't matter much.

By the same token I think there are 2 or 3 talents in the draft that could put them at another level of talent in the Conference and if they get one of those then a great FA would be like gas on a Championship fire and this year's playoff experience won't matter much.

In my world as Terry Boers would say, either of those scenarios make this year's playoff experience matter very little but one of them is elminated by making the playoffs at all. So, that's where I come down.

I get where you're coming from FF and don't expect you to agree with me. I'm not usually a "take a dive" type fan but I see some upside to it in this case with one little loss.

_________________
My Maserati does 186.

This. Thank you for arguing my point more eloquently than I could have.

_________________

You're all gonna be really embarrassed in a couple months when the Bulls are representing the East in the NBA Finals.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

I won't. I'll just go back and edit every post I made in this thread.

_________________
My Maserati does 186.

BTW - How much does it suck to be a Pacers fan? Many consider this a top 4-and-then-everyone-else draft and they were in line for bottom 4 record a 4-5 weeks ago and now are in the 9-10th area with very little shot to improve their team greatly. Maybe a Cole Aldrich/Tyler Hansborough tandem will be popular in Indiana though...

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

In reality, that's not possible.