From an older BA article but interesting.

Position Players ranked #1-10 are "Busts" 37.4% of the time. #11-20 are "Busts" 40.8% of the time, and then it jumps up to 60%+ from there.

Pitchers ranked #1-10 are "Busts" 59.2% of the time. #11-20 are "Busts" 62.7% of the time, and then it jumps up to 79%+ from there. Maybe it's smart to sell high on pitching prospects...

About 70% of Top 100 prospects fail

Great! Prospects fail at same rate as the game’s best hitters. .300!

_________________
Elections have consequences.

I think Crochet will have a first half similar to last year's and his value would have gone up, but by how much. Teams seem to love their prospects more than they ever have.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

They do, even when you compare 2024 to 2016/2017. Revenues are dropping and prospects are cheap.

Classic Bruce Levine predicting if Robert is traded for a Crochet like haul they could be .500 in '26.

Levine also implying it's perfectly acceptable for Jerry's White Sox not to resign their good players after 6 years of control.

By most things I have read, they wouldn't get a top 100 prospect for him and would be trading him at significantly reduced value. The main reason to trade him would be to dump his contract.

1st win total released for 2025....49.5
Has to be the lowest total in many years.

I wasn't surprised to see that. This team's roster is going to be worse than when it finished last season with Crochet traded and the only moves they are likely to make are for end-of-bench types. Their lineup to start the season shouldn't contain any prospects, but will have easy outs like Lee, Sosa, Baldwin, DeLoach, Vaughn, Vargas, etc. Their best offensive players are Robert and Benintendi who are both question marks.

The rotation is young and full of unknowns...Thorpe, Martin, Cannon, Burke, Nastrini....I'm sure they will add another veteran or two, but, again, these guys would not be more than borderline rotation options for most teams.

If there's any good news, this *should* be the bottom. By mid-season, or before, Montgomery, the catcher's, maybe the IF they acquired from Boston should be in the majors...question marks about them until they prove themselves, but it should be a rough 60 games or so before they start bringing players up.

They'll win at least 50 games and shock the world.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

But Jerry said hiring Getz would be the fastest way to turn it around!

_________________

At this point, I don't know how they win more games than last year. Bullpens are fickle beasts and their pen could be better just by virtue of the fact that the calendar will read "2025" instead of "2024." However, their starting pitching is demonstrably worse and they've done nothing, and are not likely to do anything, that will improve their hitting and defense.

Not getting swept 4 and 5 and 6 times in a row will get you 5 more wins. It's the other 4 wins you have to come up with to get to 50.

50 isn't a big ask. I think you bet the over just on general randomness baseball principle. What if they hit for a month? What if they field for a month? What if they pitch for a month? Boom, steak dinner, you got the other 4 wins.

Agree…I’d pound the over just based on the randomness.

_________________

I'm not pounding it. But I am getting in on it.

In '25 110-120+ losses, tiny attendance, John Schriffen & Stone heap praising, low payrolll, f-y Jerry chants, fleeced in trades.

It'll be fun!

I'm still not as high on this farm system as others. To me, it's much improved (obviously), but top heavy and only in certain positions. There's this new excitement about having 2 highly ranked catchers - I assume that means they rotate them between C, 1B, DH, maybe OF (I think Teel has played out there), but Montgomery still has more questions than he did a year ago on if he's a long-term answer at SS. They have the OF from Boston now as a legitimate prospect...but I think they are still another 2-3 prospects away on the offensive side to feeling better about the depth. Is their 1st round pick from 2 years ago (the SS) a legitimate prospect? Vargas after his regression? Ramos could be a guy but is our 3rd baseman now? Some of these guys could work out, but think they are still lacking on infielders/OF's.

Pitching has the 2 top prospects, again, great start. Do we like any of the talent behind them? Iriarte? Grant Taylor is getting some hype...

They are moving on past the Sosa's soon enough it would seem, just think they are another 1-2 good drafts...especially since they don't appear to be, and have no proven track record, of spending on difference makers in free agency. The farm system is much, much better, but you have to keep stacking there.

Some quotes from Red Sox Nation concerning the Crochet trade:

"With the enormous wealth of Prospects that were given up to get Crochet the extension needs to be at least through the 2030 season to hope to break even on the trade."

"The guy Crochet is good, but my goodness they gave up so much. Larry Anderson comes to mind."

It's always interesting to see the other side of these things.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/ ... talks.html

I'm semi-excited over the catcher. To solve that key position long term would be fantastic.

Boston is projecting Crochet as an ace and will probably have to pay him $20-$25M+ at some point in the very near future despite some concerns still about his long-term health and that the White Sox limited him to around 50 pitches an outing for the last two months to preserve his health. One really good season where he was dominant at times....We'll see, but hoping he does well in Boston.

As for the White Sox, I am tired of them trading ace type pitchers (Sale, Cease, now Crochet) vs. keeping elite players around. They talk about having a strong foundation and that's needed, but you also need elite players to win and the White Sox have none. I also understand that they completely ripped this apart to the point that Crochet pitching for them for 3-4 years wasn't going to make a difference in the standings if they weren't going to invest at the MLB level and were rebuilding a bad minior league system. This move potentially allows them to fast track their minor leagues on the offensive side with a highly regarded C, OF and an IF who will be on the team next season. Whether these guys actually pan out is the question, probably 1 does and the other two are either busts or not what they were projected....

We'll see....First half of next season will likely be historically bad once again before we start to see some of these kids.

Ky Bush (No. 12 prospect, acquired from Angels in Giolito+Lopez deal) blew out his elbow first week of spring training

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/ ... rgery.html

I'm waiting for a similar "out for season" announcement on Drew Thorpe.

Joey Gallo, lol.

The GMs may change, but the Sox penchant for signing over-the-hill sluggers stays the same.

_________________

We all thought it was Kenny, maybe it is Jerry?

Did you say Joey Gallo? With a G? Joey Gallo is dead.

They signed Joey Callo. C-a-l-l-o.

_________________

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

So they are sending Montgomery down to AAA to start the year. I do not understand that at all. With where things stand with this team, should you not get him in the lineup everyday and see what you have for the future? What is he going to gain at AAA this year that he could not get with the Big league club

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Have to manipulate the service time.

_________________

Wins.

_________________